Segregated Witness: How Does SegWit Make Bitcoin ...

Bitcoin Cash Block Sizes Average Less Than 100 KB, Defeating The Point Of Its Creation

Bitcoin Cash Block Sizes Average Less Than 100 KB, Defeating The Point Of Its Creation

https://preview.redd.it/uf07qg21zd721.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=40673169d928f79d51ec297cfdbb5c19e215e1b0
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-cash-block-sizes-average-less-than-100-kb-defeating-the-point-of-its-creation/
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) forked from the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain in August 2017, amid a heated block size debate. At the time the Bitcoin network was undergoing congestion due to increased transaction frequency and transaction fees began to exceed $1, going as high as $3 in June 2017.
The Bitcoin Cash community thought that increasing Bitcoin’s block size limit was the best method to increase scalability. Initially, when Bitcoin Cash was created, it had a block size limit of 8 MB, and this was later increased to 32 MB. But Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has a very low rate of adoption, and block sizes currently average less than 100 KB, making the block size increase above Bitcoin’s (BTC) 1 MB totally pointless, defeating the purpose of Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
The block explorer shows how Bitcoin Cash (BCH) cannot even reach 1 MB block sizes, let alone 32 MB. Block sizes of less than 10 KB are common, and there is an occasional block less than 1 KB. Blocks in excess of 100 KB are rare, and there are no blocks today anywhere near 1 MB. Therefore, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) could have a block size of 1 MB and function perfectly. The long term block size chart shows that block sizes have averaged well below 100 KB throughout December 2018.
There are a few instances in 2018 when Bitcoin Cash (BCH) exceeded 1 MB block sizes. In early September average block size briefly hit 1-3 MB, but this was from a “stress test” to prove transaction fees do not increase from increased transactions on the network.
In November, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) split into Bitcoin Cash ABC (now named Bitcoin Cash) and Bitcoin SV. The war between these Bitcoin Cash forks caused spam attacks that increased block sizes to 1-2 MB on average.
On Jan. 15 the average Bitcoin Cash (BCH) block size approached 5 mb, coinciding with the price of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) crashing from $2,700 to $1,500. This is perhaps the 1 case where Bitcoin Cash’s network legitimately had block sizes over 1 Mb, but it was due to people dumping their Bitcoin Cash (BCH) as fast as possible in a panic selling situation.
In summary, since Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has relatively low network activity when compared to Bitcoin (BTC), it seems that there was no point in creating Bitcoin Cash (BCH), since its block sizes are almost always below 100 KB.
Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have resolved its transaction fee problems with Segregated Witness (SegWit), which increases the block size to 1.2 MB on average. This is done by redefining the block size in terms of 1,000 units instead of 1,000 KB, and separating the witness data (signature data) from the Merkle Tree and counting each KB of the witness data as ¼ of a unit.
Also, the Bitcoin Lightning Network is maturing and can handle as much transaction volume as Bitcoin needs without increasing on-chain transactions or block size. In November 2018, the Lightning Network rapidly grew in capacity due to increasing Bitcoin transaction volume and proved that it is a solution which can completely mitigate rises in Bitcoin transaction fees. The fact that Bitcoin (BTC) has become scalable to increased transaction frequency makes the creation of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) even more pointless.
submitted by turtlecane to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Day 5: I will post this guide regularly until available solutions like SegWit & order batching are mass adopted, the mempool is empty once again, and transaction fees are low. User demand from this community can help lead to some big changes. Have you joined the /r/Bitcoin SegWit effort?

SUMMARY
Segregrated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24, 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous bitcoin transactions (Understanding Segregated Witness). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, some admitting in December 2017 that they have not even started work. If users demand SegWit now it will temporarily releive the transaction backlog while bigger solutions like Lightning are developed.
TODAY's NEWS/DEVELOPMENTS/VICTORIES
MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS
BACKGROUND
Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that:
If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again.
A few thousand bitcoin users from /Bitcoin switching to making their next transactions SegWit transactions will help take pressure off the network now, and together we can encourage exchanges/wallets to rapidly deploy SegWit for everyone ASAP. Let's make 80%+ SegWit happen fast. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below.
ACTION STEPS
  1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit.
  2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail
  3. Help educate newcomers to bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming bitcoin.
  4. Spread the word! Conact individuals, websites, etc that use bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch
IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange.
SELECTED TOP EXCHANGES BY SEGWIT & BATCHING STATUS
Exchange Segwit Status Batching Status
Binance NOT READY Yes
Bitfinex Ready ?
Bitonic Ready ? Yes
Bitstamp Deployed Yes
Bittrex ? Yes
Coinbase/GDAX NOT READY No
Gemini Ready No
HitBTC Deployed Yes
Huboi ? ?
Kraken Ready Yes
LocalBitcoins Ready ?
OKEx ? ?
Poloniex ? Yes
QuadrigaCX Deployed Yes
Shapeshift Deployed No
Source 1
Source 2
SELECTED WALLETS THAT HAVE SEGWIT ALREADY
Make sure you have a SegWit capable wallet installed and ready to use for your next bitcoin transaction
SegWit Enabled Wallets Wallet Type
Ledger Nano S Hardware
Trezor Hardware
Electrum Desktop
Armory Desktop
Edge iOS
GreenAddress iOS
BitWallet iOS
Samourai Android
GreenBits Android
Electrum Android
FAQs
If I'm a HODLer, will it help to send my BTC to a SegWit address now?
  • No, just get ready now so that your NEXT transaction will be to a SegWit wallet. Avoid burdening the network with any unneccessary transactions for now.
Can you please tell me how to move my bitcoins to SegWit address in Bitcoin core wallet? Does the sender or receiver matter?
  • The Bitcoin core wallet does not yet have a GUI for its SegWit functionality. Download Electrum v3.0.3 to generate a SegWit address.
    A transaction between two SegWit addresses is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a SegWit address to a non-SegWit address is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a non-SegWit address to a SegWit address is NOT a SegWit transaction. You can send a SegWit Tx if the sending address is a SegWit address.
    Source
What wallet are you using to "batch your sends"? And how can I do that?
  • Using Electrum, the "Tools" menu option: "Pay to many".
    Just enter your receive addresses and the amounts for each, and you can send multiple transactions for nearly the price of one.
Why doesn't the Core Wallet yet support SegWit?
  • The Core Wallet supports SegWit, but its GUI doesn't. The next update will likely have GUI support built-in
Why isn't a large exchange like Coinbase SegWit ready & deployed when much smaller exchanges already are? Why do they default to high fees? Where is the leadership there?
SEGWIT BLOG GUIDES
PREVIOUS DAY'S THREADS
There's lots of excellent info in the comments of the previous threads:
Edit: Bitonic batching status updated to 'Yes'
submitted by Bastiat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

We really need to start pushing for SegWit support. Stop waiting for the Lightning Network to fix everything.

What is SegWit ?
The formal title "Segregated Witness (Consensus layer)" had Bitcoin Improvement Proposals number BIP141. It is intended to solve a blockchain size limitation problem that reduces Bitcoin transaction speed. It does this by splitting the transaction into two segments, removing the unlocking signature ("witness" data) from the original portion and appending it as a separate structure at the end. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SegWit)
What's the problem?
It has been more than 3 months since SegWit was activated. The current level of support for Segwit is abysmal at only 13% of all transactions using SegWit (http://segwit.party/charts/). If everyone right now switched to a SegWit supported wallet, the mempool would likely be empty again allowing for instant transactions once again. While we're all looking at the Lightning Network to solve the congestion issues, the is a much easier and faster fix right in front of us and that is SegWit.
Why isn't everybody using SegWit yet?
That is likely due to the fact that some very large exchanges have yet to activate SegWit on their site yet. Once they do activate SegWit , we should see the number of SegWit transactions rise up. This doesn't just benefit the users as the exchanges themselves will also pay less fees. In other words, we need to pressure all big exchanges into activating Segwit. Not next year, not next month but NOW.
How can I check if my wallet is Segwit compatible?
Good news is, most hardware and software wallets use SegWit. SegWit (P2SH) addresses begin with a “3”, like multisig addresses so they are easy to spot. If your wallet address does not begin with a 3, then it's not SegWit compatible. Those are the addresses we need to get changed and updated to SegWit compatible ones.
So who hasn't activated SegWit yet?
It's time to name and shame the exchanges that haven't activated SegWit yet. You can find a list of all major exchanges and players that have activated SegWit right here: https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/ If your wallet or exchange is NOT highlighted in green, it means it still hasn't activated SegWit yet and needs some serious encouragement from their paying customers. Those will either be marked in yellow as a work in progress or marked in white as planned. Neither of those two statuses are acceptable. It has been more than 3 months now and neglecting to activate Segwit is becoming a serious problem for the whole blockchain and needs to be dealt with right now.
You can help speed up SegWit activation!
This is where big numbers hold big power. You can all help by first checking if your wallet is SegWit compatible (needs to start with a 3). If it's not SegWit compatible, then please make whoever provided the wallet is aware of this issue you are facing and request them to provide a SegWit wallet as soon as possible. So for example if you have a wallet on Coinbase, you will notice it has not activated SegWit yet. You help the cause greatly by sending the exchange support a message that you want to see SegWit activated on their exchange. If you want to take it one step further, you could move your Bitcoins and other funds away from your non-SegWit wallet and exchange to one that does have SegWit activated.
The time for action is now. If you have any questions, please ask them.
tl;dr: SegWit adoption is seriously low. If we can increase it we get faster transactions at lower costs.
submitted by ForeverDutch92 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Day 9: I will post this guide regularly until available solutions like SegWit, order batching, and Lightning payment channels are mass adopted, the mempool is empty once again, and tx fees are low. Have you done your part?

BACKGROUND
Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous bitcoin transactions (Understanding Segregated Witness). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, and the majority of users have not made the switch themselves.
On Dec 18 2017 Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that: If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again.
Mass SegWit use alone could empty the mempool, result in blocks that are not completely full, and make it possible to include transactions with $0 fee once again.
On Jan 11 2018 when BTC sends went offline at Coinbase the mempool began to rapidly empty. Later in the day when service was restored there was a sharp spike up in the mempool. Subsequently, that afternoon Brian Armstrong finally had to break his silence on the topic and admitted Coinbase is working on SegWit but has still not deployed it. It appears that this is an important data point that indicates if just a few major exchanges would deploy SegWit the high fees bitcoin is experiencing would be eliminated.
SegWit is just one technique available to exchanges and users to reduce pressure on the Bitcoin network. You can make the switch to SegWit on your next transaction, and pressure exchanges to deploy SegWit NOW along with other actions that will reduce their transaction impact on the network. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below.
ACTION STEPS
  1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. If your wallet is not committed to implementing SegWit fast, speak out online any way you can and turn up the pressure. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit.
  2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail
  3. Help educate newcomers to bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming bitcoin.
  4. Spread the word! Contact individuals, websites, etc that use bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch. Use social media to point out the benefits of SegWit adoption.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange.
BEYOND SEGWIT - BATCHING, PAYMENT CHANNELS, LIGHTNING
Batching is another great way that exchanges can reduce their fees. See: Saving up to 80% on Bitcoin transaction fees by batching payments. Despite the benefits of batching, some exchanges have been slow to implement it. Users should demand this or walk.
Beyond SegWit & Batching, Lightning Network integration will have even more effect. Lightning is now active and exchanges could setup payment channels between each other so that on-chain transactions need not take place. Some ideas have to outline how that might work are here: Google Doc - Lightning Exchanges. Which two bitcoin exchanges will be the first to establish a lightning channel between themselves and offer free/instant transfers between them for their customers? This will happen in 2018
MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS
NEWS/DEVELOPMENTS/VICTORIES
SELECTED TOP EXCHANGES BY BATCHING & SEGWIT STATUS
Exchange Segwit Status Batching Status
Binance NOT READY Yes
Bitfinex Ready Yes
Bitonic Ready Yes
Bitstamp Deployed Yes
Bittrex ? Yes
Coinbase/GDAX NOT READY No
Gemini Ready No
HitBTC Deployed Yes
Huboi ? ?
Kraken Deployed Yes
LocalBitcoins Deployed Yes
OKEx ? ?
Poloniex ? Yes
QuadrigaCX Deployed Yes
Shapeshift Deployed No
Note: all exchanges that have deployed SegWit are currently only sending to p2sh SegWit addresses for now. No exchange will send to a bech32 address like the ones that Electrum generates
Source 1: BitcoinCore.org
Source 2: /Bitcoin
Official statements from exchanges:
SELECTED WALLETS THAT HAVE SEGWIT ALREADY
Make sure you have a SegWit capable wallet installed and ready to use for your next bitcoin transaction
SegWit Enabled Wallets Wallet Type
Ledger Nano S Hardware
Trezor Hardware
Electrum Desktop
Armory Desktop
Edge iOS
GreenAddress iOS
BitWallet iOS
Samourai Android
GreenBits Android
Electrum Android
SegWitAddress.org Paper
FAQs
If I'm a HODLer, will it help to send my BTC to a SegWit address now?
No, just get ready now so that your NEXT transaction will be to a SegWit wallet. Avoid burdening the network with any unnecessary transactions for now.
Why is SegWit adoption going so slowly? Is it a time-consuming process, is there risk involved, is it laziness, or something else?
SegWit will require some extra work to be done right and securely. Also, most exchanges let the user pay the fee, and up to now users have not been overly concerned about fees so for some exchanges it hasn't been a priority.
Once Segwit is FULLY adopted, what do we see the fees/transaction times going to?
Times stay the same - fees will go down. How much and for how long depends on what the demand for transactions will be at that time.
What determines bitcoin transaction fees, to begin with?
Fees are charged per byte of data and are bid up by users. Miners will typically include the transaction with the highest fee/byte first.
Can you please tell me how to move my bitcoins to SegWit address in Bitcoin core wallet? Does the sender or receiver matter?
The Bitcoin core wallet does not yet have a GUI for its SegWit functionality. Download the latest version of Electrum to generate a SegWit address.
A transaction between two SegWit addresses is a SegWit transaction.
A transaction sent from a SegWit address to a non-SegWit address is a SegWit transaction.
A transaction sent from a non-SegWit address to a SegWit address is NOT a SegWit transaction. You can send a SegWit Tx if the sending address is a SegWit address.
Source: HowToToken
What wallet are you using to "batch your sends"? And how can I do that?
Using Electrum, the "Tools" menu option: "Pay to many".
Just enter your receive addresses and the amounts for each, and you can send multiple transactions for nearly the price of one.
Why doesn't the Core Wallet yet support SegWit?
The Core Wallet supports SegWit, but its GUI doesn't. The next update will likely have GUI support built-in
Why isn't a large exchange like Coinbase SegWit ready & deployed when much smaller exchanges already are? Why do they default to high fees? Where is the leadership there?
Draw your own conclusions based on their own words:
March 2016 - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has reservations about Core
Dec 2017 - Coinbase is STILL working on Segwit
P2SH/bech32 FAQs
What are the two SegWit address formats and why do they exist?
It's been a challenge for wallet developers to implement SegWit in a way that users can easily and without too much disruption migrate from legacy to SegWit addresses. The first wallets to enable SegWit addresses – Ledger, Trezor, Core, GreenAddress – use so-called “nested P2SH addresses.” This means they take the existing Pay 2 Script Hash address – starting with a “3” – and put a SegWit address into it. This enables a high grade of compatibility to exist wallets as every wallet is familiar with these addresses, but it is a workaround which results in SegWit transactions needing around 10 percent more space than they otherwise would.
Electrum 3.0 was the first wallet to use bech32 addresses instead of nested p2sh addresses.
Source: BTCManager.com
What is the difference in address format between SegWit address formats P2SH and bech32?
P2SH starts with "3..."
bech32 starts with "bc1..."
Which addresses can I send from/to?
P2SH Segwit addresses can be sent to using older Bitcoin software with no Segwit support. This supports backward compatibility
bech32 can only be sent to from newer Bitcoin software that support bech32. Ex: Electrum
Source: BitcoinTalk.org
Why did ThePirateBay put up two Bitcoin donation addresses on their frontpage, one bech32 and one not?
The address starting with a "3..." is a P2SH SegWit address that can be sent BTC from any bitcoin address including a legacy address. The address starting with a "bc1..." is a bech32 SegWit address that can only be sent to from newer wallets that support bech32.
SEGWIT BLOG GUIDES
PREVIOUS DAY'S THREADS
There's lots of excellent info in the comments of the previous threads:
submitted by Bastiat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Day 8: I will post this guide regularly until available solutions like SegWit, order batching, and Lightning payment channels are mass adopted, the mempool is empty once again, and tx fees are low. BTC Core SegWit GUI coming May 1, Coinbase incompetence exposed, more exchanges deploy SegWit

BACKGROUND
Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous bitcoin transactions (Understanding Segregated Witness). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, and the majority of users have not made the switch themselves.
On Dec 18 2017 Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that: If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again.
Mass SegWit use alone could empty the mempool, result in blocks that are not completely full, and make it possible to include transactions with $0 fee once again.
On Jan 11 2018 when BTC sends went offline at Coinbase the mempool began to rapidly empty. Later in the day when service was restored there was a sharp spike up in the mempool. Subsequently, that afternoon Brian Armstrong finally had to break his silence on the topic and admitted Coinbase is working on SegWit but has still not deployed it. It appears that the high fees bitcoin is experiencing could be easily addressed and need not exist.
SegWit is just one technique available to exchanges and users to reduce pressure on the Bitcoin network. You can make the switch to SegWit on your next transaction, and pressure exchanges to deploy SegWit NOW along with other actions that will reduce their transaction impact on the network. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below.
ACTION STEPS
  1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. If your wallet is not committed to implementing SegWit fast, speak out online any way you can and turn up the pressure. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit.
  2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail
  3. Help educate newcomers to bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming bitcoin.
  4. Spread the word! Contact individuals, websites, etc that use bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch. Use social media to point out the benefits of SegWit adoption.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange.
BEYOND SEGWIT - BATCHING, PAYMENT CHANNELS, LIGHTNING
Batching is another great way that exchanges can reduce their fees. See: Saving up to 80% on Bitcoin transaction fees by batching payments. Despite the benefits of batching, some exchanges have been slow to implement it. Users should demand this or walk.
Beyond SegWit & Batching, Lightning Network integration will have even more effect. Lightning is now active and exchanges could setup payment channels between each other so that on-chain transactions need not take place. Some ideas have to outline how that might work are here: Google Doc - Lightning Exchanges. Which two bitcoin exchanges will be the first to establish a lightning channel between themselves and offer free/instant transfers between them for their customers? This will happen in 2018
MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS
NEWS/DEVELOPMENTS/VICTORIES
SELECTED TOP EXCHANGES BY BATCHING & SEGWIT STATUS
Exchange Segwit Status Batching Status
Binance NOT READY Yes
Bitfinex Ready Yes
Bitonic Ready Yes
Bitstamp Deployed Yes
Bittrex ? Yes
Coinbase/GDAX NOT READY No
Gemini Ready No
HitBTC Deployed Yes
Huboi ? ?
Kraken Deployed Yes
LocalBitcoins Deployed Yes
OKEx ? ?
Poloniex ? Yes
QuadrigaCX Deployed Yes
Shapeshift Deployed No
Note: all exchanges that have deployed SegWit are currently only sending to p2sh SegWit addresses for now. No exchange will send to a bech32 address like the ones that Electrum generates
Source 1: BitcoinCore.org
Source 2: /Bitcoin
Official statements from exchanges:
SELECTED WALLETS THAT HAVE SEGWIT ALREADY
Make sure you have a SegWit capable wallet installed and ready to use for your next bitcoin transaction
SegWit Enabled Wallets Wallet Type
Ledger Nano S Hardware
Trezor Hardware
Electrum Desktop
Armory Desktop
Edge iOS
GreenAddress iOS
BitWallet iOS
Samourai Android
GreenBits Android
Electrum Android
SegWitAddress.org Paper
FAQs
If I'm a HODLer, will it help to send my BTC to a SegWit address now?
No, just get ready now so that your NEXT transaction will be to a SegWit wallet. Avoid burdening the network with any unnecessary transactions for now.
Why is SegWit adoption going so slowly? Is it a time-consuming process, is there risk involved, is it laziness, or something else?
SegWit will require some extra work to be done right and securely. Also, most exchanges let the user pay the fee, and up to now users have not been overly concerned about fees so for some exchanges it hasn't been a priority.
Once Segwit is FULLY adopted, what do we see the fees/transaction times going to?
Times stay the same - fees will go down. How much and for how long depends on what the demand for transactions will be at that time.
What determines bitcoin transaction fees, to begin with?
Fees are charged per byte of data and are bid up by users. Miners will typically include the transaction with the highest fee/byte first.
Can you please tell me how to move my bitcoins to SegWit address in Bitcoin core wallet? Does the sender or receiver matter?
The Bitcoin core wallet does not yet have a GUI for its SegWit functionality. Download the latest version of Electrum to generate a SegWit address.
A transaction between two SegWit addresses is a SegWit transaction.
A transaction sent from a SegWit address to a non-SegWit address is a SegWit transaction.
A transaction sent from a non-SegWit address to a SegWit address is NOT a SegWit transaction. You can send a SegWit Tx if the sending address is a SegWit address.
Source: HowToToken
What wallet are you using to "batch your sends"? And how can I do that?
Using Electrum, the "Tools" menu option: "Pay to many".
Just enter your receive addresses and the amounts for each, and you can send multiple transactions for nearly the price of one.
Why doesn't the Core Wallet yet support SegWit?
The Core Wallet supports SegWit, but its GUI doesn't. The next update will likely have GUI support built-in
Why isn't a large exchange like Coinbase SegWit ready & deployed when much smaller exchanges already are? Why do they default to high fees? Where is the leadership there?
Draw your own conclusions based on their own words:
March 2016 - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has reservations about Core
Dec 2017 - Coinbase is STILL working on Segwit
P2SH/bech32 FAQs
What are the two SegWit address formats and why do they exist?
It's been a challenge for wallet developers to implement SegWit in a way that users can easily and without too much disruption migrate from legacy to SegWit addresses. The first wallets to enable SegWit addresses – Ledger, Trezor, Core, GreenAddress – use so-called “nested P2SH addresses.” This means they take the existing Pay 2 Script Hash address – starting with a “3” – and put a SegWit address into it. This enables a high grade of compatibility to exist wallets as every wallet is familiar with these addresses, but it is a workaround which results in SegWit transactions needing around 10 percent more space than they otherwise would.
Electrum 3.0 was the first wallet to use bech32 addresses instead of nested p2sh addresses.
Source: BTCManager.com
What is the difference in address format between SegWit address formats P2SH and bech32?
P2SH starts with "3..."
bech32 starts with "bc1..."
Which addresses can I send from/to?
P2SH Segwit addresses can be sent to using older Bitcoin software with no Segwit support. This supports backward compatibility
bech32 can only be sent to from newer Bitcoin software that support bech32. Ex: Electrum
Source: BitcoinTalk.org
Why did ThePirateBay put up two Bitcoin donation addresses on their frontpage, one bech32 and one not?
The address starting with a "3..." is a P2SH SegWit address that can be sent BTC from any bitcoin address including a legacy address. The address starting with a "bc1..." is a bech32 SegWit address that can only be sent to from newer wallets that support bech32.
SEGWIT BLOG GUIDES
PREVIOUS DAY'S THREADS
There's lots of excellent info in the comments of the previous threads:
submitted by Bastiat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Day 7: I will post this guide regularly until available solutions like SegWit & order batching are mass adopted, the mempool is empty once again, and tx fees are low. Do you want low tx fees, because this is how you get low tx fees

TL/DR
Bitcoin users can help lower transaction fees and improve bitcoin by switching to SegWit addresses and encourage wallets/exchanges to do the same.
SUMMARY
Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous bitcoin transactions (Understanding Segregated Witness). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, some admitting in December 2017 that they have not even started work on integrating it. Others, such as Zebpay in India have already implemented SegWit and are reaping the benefits of reduced transaction fees. If bitcoin users demand SegWit now it will temporarily relieve the transaction backlog while more even more advanced solutions such as Lightning are developed.
Batching is another great way that exchanges can reduce their fees. See: Saving up to 80% on Bitcoin transaction fees by batching payments. Despite the benefits of batching, some exchanges have been slow to implement it.
There is an opportunity now for all bitcoin users to individually contribute to help strengthen and improve the bitcoin protocol. At this point, the process requires a bit of work/learning on the part of the user, but in doing so you'll actually be advancing bitcoin and leaving what could turn out to be a multi-generational legacy for humanity.
MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS
BACKGROUND
On Dec 18 Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that:
If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again.
A few thousand bitcoin users from /Bitcoin switching to making their next transactions SegWit transactions will help take pressure off the network now, and together we can encourage exchanges/wallets to rapidly deploy SegWit for everyone ASAP. Let's make 80%+ SegWit happen fast. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below.
ACTION STEPS
  1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit.
  2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail
  3. Help educate newcomers to bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming bitcoin.
  4. Spread the word! Conact individuals, websites, etc that use bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch
IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange.
SELECTED TOP EXCHANGES BY BATCHING & SEGWIT STATUS
Exchange Segwit Status Batching Status
Binance NOT READY Yes
Bitfinex Ready Yes
Bitonic Ready Yes
Bitstamp Deployed Yes
Bittrex ? Yes
Coinbase/GDAX NOT READY No
Gemini Ready No
HitBTC Deployed Yes
Huboi ? ?
Kraken Deployed Yes
LocalBitcoins Ready Yes
OKEx ? ?
Poloniex ? Yes
QuadrigaCX Deployed Yes
Shapeshift Deployed No
Note: all exchanges that have deployed SegWit are currently only sending to p2sh SegWit addresses for now. No exchange will send to a bech32 address like the ones that Electrum generates
Source 1: BitcoinCore.org
Source 2: /Bitcoin
Official statements from exchanges:
SELECTED WALLETS THAT HAVE SEGWIT ALREADY
Make sure you have a SegWit capable wallet installed and ready to use for your next bitcoin transaction
SegWit Enabled Wallets Wallet Type
Ledger Nano S Hardware
Trezor Hardware
Electrum Desktop
Armory Desktop
Edge iOS
GreenAddress iOS
BitWallet iOS
Samourai Android
GreenBits Android
Electrum Android
SegWitAddress.org Paper
FAQs
If I'm a HODLer, will it help to send my BTC to a SegWit address now?
  • No, just get ready now so that your NEXT transaction will be to a SegWit wallet. Avoid burdening the network with any unneccessary transactions for now.
Why is SegWit adoption going so slowly? Is it a time-consuming process, is there risk involved, is it laziness, or something else?
  • SegWit will require some extra work to be done right and securely. Also, most exchanges let the user pay the fee, and up to now users have not been overly concerned about fees so for some exchanges it hasn't been a priority.
Once Segwit is FULLY adopted, what do we see the fees/transaction times going to?
  • Times stay the same - fees will go down. How much and for how long depends on what the demand for transactions will be at that time.
What determines bitcoin transaction fees, to begin with?
  • Fees are charged per byte of data and are bid up by users. Miners will typically include the transaction with the highest fee/byte first.
Can you please tell me how to move my bitcoins to SegWit address in Bitcoin core wallet? Does the sender or receiver matter?
  • The Bitcoin core wallet does not yet have a GUI for its SegWit functionality. Download Electrum v3.0.3 to generate a SegWit address.
    A transaction between two SegWit addresses is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a SegWit address to a non-SegWit address is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a non-SegWit address to a SegWit address is NOT a SegWit transaction. You can send a SegWit Tx if the sending address is a SegWit address.
    Source: HowToToken
What wallet are you using to "batch your sends"? And how can I do that?
  • Using Electrum, the "Tools" menu option: "Pay to many".
    Just enter your receive addresses and the amounts for each, and you can send multiple transactions for nearly the price of one.
Why doesn't the Core Wallet yet support SegWit?
  • The Core Wallet supports SegWit, but its GUI doesn't. The next update will likely have GUI support built-in
Why isn't a large exchange like Coinbase SegWit ready & deployed when much smaller exchanges already are? Why do they default to high fees? Where is the leadership there?
P2SH/bech32 FAQs
What are the two SegWit address formats and why do they exist?
  • It's been a challenge for wallet developers to implement SegWit in a way that users can easily and without too much disruption migrate from legacy to SegWit addresses. The first wallets to enable SegWit addresses – Ledger, Trezor, Core, GreenAddress – use so-called “nested P2SH addresses.” This means they take the existing Pay 2 Script Hash address – starting with a “3” – and put a SegWit address into it. This enables a high grade of compatibility to existing wallets as every wallet is familiar with these addresses, but it is a workaround which results in SegWit transactions needing around 10 percent more space than they otherwise would.
    Electrum 3.0 was the first wallet to use bech32 addresses instead of nested p2sh addresses.
    Source: BTCManager.com
What is the difference in address format between SegWit address formats P2SH and bech32?
  • P2SH starts with "3..."
    bech32 starts with "bc1..."
Which addresses can I send from/to?
  • P2SH Segwit addresses can be sent to using older Bitcoin software with no Segwit support. This supports backwards compatibility
    bech32 can only be sent to from newer Bitcoin software that support bech32. Ex: Electrum
    Source: BitcoinTalk.org
Why did ThePirateBay put up two Bitcoin donation addresses on their frontpage, one bech32 and one not?
  • The address starting with a "3..." is a P2SH SegWit address that can be sent BTC from any bitcoin address including a legacy address. The address starting with a "bc1..." is a bech32 SegWit address that can only be sent to from newer wallets that support bech32.
SEGWIT BLOG GUIDES
PREVIOUS DAY'S THREADS
There's lots of excellent info in the comments of the previous threads:
submitted by Bastiat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

On "Segwit is a blocksize increase"

Because I still hear this argument all the time, I'd like to discuss the talking point a bit.
Today, I'm not going to discuss as much the context it's brought up in (which can make the argument border on disingenuous.) Instead I'd rather discuss it in terms of actual effectiveness.
As an initial aside, to anyone making this argument, I'll start by saying this.
Now let's look where Segwit has actually left Bitcoin
Both in blocksize,
and transaction throughput
First, notice that what is often claimed to be a "4MB maximum blocksize increase" has only once averaged above 1.3MB for a 1-day period on Feb 11th of this year and maybe a 17% overall increase in transaction capacity.
The reason blocksizes haven't been substantially higher is that SegWit (which stands for Segregated Witness) takes the signature data of a transaction and offloads it to a different blockspace.
Most transactions only have a couple of inputs and thus only need a couple of signatures so there's not much data to offload. The creators of SegWit, however, realized that there would be fringe cases with dozens or hundreds of inputs to a transaction which would have a higher proportion of data:sigdata.
That means in order to use more than ~1.7MB of space with 100% SegWit usage, you need to write transactions that have far more inputs than outputs. In plain English, you're taking balances from a large number of wallets and putting that balance in to one or two.
The obvious problem with this is in order to fulfill that requirement for any reasonable length of time, you would quickly find yourself consolidating all bitcoin to a single address... where the process couldn't possibly continue.
Because the average number of addresses in the system is going to grow instead of shrink, a 4MB benchmark simply doesn't reflect any sane notion of daily usage.
As a side note, I've even seen one user make the argument that "increasing the Signature block size to 4MB was the compromise" in spite of the fact that anything over 2MB will just be unused space in anything but outlier circumstances... And also in spite of the fact that the 2X in SegWit2x stood for... 2x...
Additionally, Schnorr signatures will effectively reduce signature data to 1-per-transaction so after implementation, the effectiveness of SegWit should fall drastically.
The more important point I'd like to make deals with how Segwit adoption has never exceeded 50%.
Now this can be seen as a half empty / half full scenario.
One person can take a look at that and say "the fact that SegWit isn't being used is proof that it's a dumb idea."
Another person can take a look at that and say "the fact that SegWit isn't being used is proof that more scaling isn't needed because there's still more space."
Personally, I think both of these assertions miss the mark in favor of this:
Bitcoin Transactions have different values to different people and the SegWit protocol best scales only when everybody on the system uses it in a preferred and expected way.
A blocksize increase on the other hand, doubles capacity regardless of how users use it.
By relying only on SegWit to scale, you slowly alienate everybody on the network who absolutely needs the extra space and you undermine the transactional utility of the network.
I don't think SegWit was a bad idea, but relying on fee pressure to force SegWit usage will probably have some longer-term adverse side effects.
TL;DR: SegWit scales best when everyone uses the network in a specific way. A blocksize increase scales no matter what.
submitted by CaptainPatent to btc [link] [comments]

Day 6: I will post this guide regularly until available solutions like SegWit & order batching are mass adopted, the mempool is empty once again, and tx fees are low. Refer a friend to SegWit today. There's no $10 referral offer, but you'll both get lower fees and help strengthen the BTC protocol

TL/DR
Bitcoin users can help lower transaction fees and contribute to bitcoin by switching to SegWit addresses and encourage wallets/exchanges to do the same.
SUMMARY
Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous bitcoin transactions (Understanding Segregated Witness). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, some admitting in December 2017 that they have not even started work on integrating it. Others, such as Zebpay in India have already implemented SegWit and are reaping the benefits of reduced transaction fees. If bitcoin users demand SegWit now it will temporarily relieve the transaction backlog while more even more advanced solutions such as Lightning are developed.
Batching is another great way that exchanges can reduce their fees. See: Saving up to 80% on Bitcoin transaction fees by batching payments. Despite the benefits of batching, some exchanges have been slow to implement it.
There is an opportunity now for all bitcoin users to individually contribute to help strengthen and improve the bitcoin protocol. At this point, the process requires a bit of work/learning on the part of the user, but in doing so you'll actually be advancing bitcoin and leaving what could turn out to be a multi-generational legacy for humanity.
MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS
BACKGROUND
On Dec 18 Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that:
If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again.
A few thousand bitcoin users from /Bitcoin switching to making their next transactions SegWit transactions will help take pressure off the network now, and together we can encourage exchanges/wallets to rapidly deploy SegWit for everyone ASAP. Let's make 80%+ SegWit happen fast. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below.
ACTION STEPS
  1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit.
  2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail
  3. Help educate newcomers to bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming bitcoin.
  4. Spread the word! Conact individuals, websites, etc that use bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch
IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange.
SELECTED TOP EXCHANGES BY BATCHING & SEGWIT STATUS
Exchange Segwit Status Batching Status
Binance NOT READY Yes
Bitfinex Ready Yes
Bitonic Ready Yes
Bitstamp Deployed Yes
Bittrex ? Yes
Coinbase/GDAX NOT READY No
Gemini Ready No
HitBTC Deployed Yes
Huboi ? ?
Kraken Deployed Yes
LocalBitcoins Ready Yes
OKEx ? ?
Poloniex ? Yes
QuadrigaCX Deployed Yes
Shapeshift Deployed No
  • Note: all exchanges that have deployed SegWit are currently only sending to p2sh SegWit addresses for now. No exchange will send to a bech32 address like the ones that Electrum generates
Source 1: BitcoinCore.org
Source 2: /Bitcoin
Official statements from exchanges:
SELECTED WALLETS THAT HAVE SEGWIT ALREADY
Make sure you have a SegWit capable wallet installed and ready to use for your next bitcoin transaction
SegWit Enabled Wallets Wallet Type
Ledger Nano S Hardware
Trezor Hardware
Electrum Desktop
Armory Desktop
Edge iOS
GreenAddress iOS
BitWallet iOS
Samourai Android
GreenBits Android
Electrum Android
FAQs
If I'm a HODLer, will it help to send my BTC to a SegWit address now?
  • No, just get ready now so that your NEXT transaction will be to a SegWit wallet. Avoid burdening the network with any unneccessary transactions for now.
Why is SegWit adoption going so slowly? Is it a time-consuming process, is there risk involved, is it laziness, or something else?
  • SegWit will require some extra work to be done right and securely. Also, most exchanges let the user pay the fee, and up to now users have not been overly concerned about fees so for some exchanges it hasn't been a priority.
Once Segwit is FULLY adopted, what do we see the fees/transaction times going to?
  • Times stay the same - fees will go down. How much and for how long depends on what the demand for transactions will be at that time.
What determines bitcoin transaction fees, to begin with?
  • Fees are charged per byte of data and are bid up by users. Miners will typically include the transaction with the highest fee/byte first.
Can you please tell me how to move my bitcoins to SegWit address in Bitcoin core wallet? Does the sender or receiver matter?
  • The Bitcoin core wallet does not yet have a GUI for its SegWit functionality. Download Electrum v3.0.3 to generate a SegWit address.
    A transaction between two SegWit addresses is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a SegWit address to a non-SegWit address is a SegWit transaction.
    A transaction sent from a non-SegWit address to a SegWit address is NOT a SegWit transaction. You can send a SegWit Tx if the sending address is a SegWit address.
    Source: HowToToken
What wallet are you using to "batch your sends"? And how can I do that?
  • Using Electrum, the "Tools" menu option: "Pay to many".
    Just enter your receive addresses and the amounts for each, and you can send multiple transactions for nearly the price of one.
Why doesn't the Core Wallet yet support SegWit?
  • The Core Wallet supports SegWit, but its GUI doesn't. The next update will likely have GUI support built-in
Why isn't a large exchange like Coinbase SegWit ready & deployed when much smaller exchanges already are? Why do they default to high fees? Where is the leadership there?
P2SH/bech32 FAQs
What are the two SegWit address formats and why do they exist?
  • It's been a challenge for wallet developers to implement SegWit in a way that users can easily and without too much disruption migrate from legacy to SegWit addresses. The first wallets to enable SegWit addresses – Ledger, Trezor, Core, GreenAddress – use so-called “nested P2SH addresses.” This means they take the existing Pay 2 Script Hash address – starting with a “3” – and put a SegWit address into it. This enables a high grade of compatibility to existing wallets as every wallet is familiar with these addresses, but it is a workaround which results in SegWit transactions needing around 10 percent more space than they otherwise would.
    Electrum 3.0 was the first wallet to use bech32 addresses instead of nested p2sh addresses.
    Source: BTCManager.com
What is the difference in address format between SegWit address formats P2SH and bech32?
  • P2SH starts with "3..."
    bech32 starts with "bc1..."
Which addresses can I send from/to?
  • P2SH Segwit addresses can be sent to using older Bitcoin software with no Segwit support. This supports backwards compatibility
    bech32 can only be sent to from newer Bitcoin software that support bech32. Ex: Electrum
    Source: BitcoinTalk.org
Why did ThePirateBay put up two Bitcoin donation addresses on their frontpage, one bech32 and one not?
  • The address starting with a "3..." is a P2SH SegWit address that can be sent BTC from any bitcoin address including a legacy address. The address starting with a "bc1..." is a bech32 SegWit address that can only be sent to from newer wallets that support bech32.
SEGWIT BLOG GUIDES
PREVIOUS DAY'S THREADS
There's lots of excellent info in the comments of the previous threads:
submitted by Bastiat to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer

By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast.
Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos.
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back.
Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate!
Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous.
BACKGROUND
As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments.
I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC!
On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:

As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences.
With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell?
FUNDAMENTALS
Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel.
The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages.
SECURITY
The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed.
At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied).
This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m.
This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day.
Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage.
When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin.
These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way.
With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!

SPECULATION
For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers.
Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good.
A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect.
Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.
There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg)
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg)
And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage.
According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not.
For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin.
Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you.
In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away.
RETAIL
There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017.
Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin.
If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts.
What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available.
After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys.
To do so, I highly recommend Bitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware).
WALL STREET
There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017.
LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization.
The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures.
The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon.
By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable.
This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets.
THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION
The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg)
Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset?
BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE
At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit).
But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk.
Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B.
And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography!
This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen.
Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity.
To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png)
TRANSACTIONS
Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve.
On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017.
Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls?
As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again.
Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move.
There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png)
What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network.
The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee.
The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it.
I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA.
DEVELOPERS
Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want.
The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is.
However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses.
Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg)
SETTLEMENT CURRENCY
There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet.
Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid.
PRICE
There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth.
Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand.
Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics!
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg)
On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030.
On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus."
On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000".
Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition.
I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC.
Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny.
Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State.
Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png)
Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market.
The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day.
So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png)
Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction.
We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose?
As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world.
CONCLUSION
Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017.
The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled.
The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon.
While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright.
Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do!
But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here.
Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts.
Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin.
Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go?
After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it!
What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
submitted by bitcoinknowledge to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

It's Time to Let Everyone in on Litecoin's Biggest Secret

Fellow Consumers,
It's possible that you might be getting a little upset at the current BTC fees. Please assist me in sending, or editing as you see fit, this drafted outline and email to whichever business you feel would benefit from using Litecoin instead. Or you can make a video, or tweet the link, or 100 other things. Just help in bringing attention to Litecoin in BTC's mempool time of need. It's time they learned Litecoin's biggest secret .... It’s THE BEST payment method out there. Also, please support businesses that currently accept Litecoin. I've put together a list below the draft.
........................................................................................................................................
BEGIN EMAIL DRAFT
To whom it may concern,
Has your company ever considered receiving the alternative payment currency Litecoin?
To begin, you may already be accepting bitcoin and Litecoin is very similar to bitcoin. If you're unfamiliar with bitcoin as a currency then Litecoin is a great place to start. They are even built from the same Core coding. A benefit to Litecoin is that it has a 2.5 minute block time instead of bitcoin's 10 minutes. This makes Litecoin's transaction speed four times faster and much less expensive than bitcoin. In layman's terms, this just means payment is confirmed faster and less expensively with Litecoin.
For reference - you can see the average fee of both bitcoin and Litecoin in US Dollars compared here: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-ltc.html#1y
This chart shows the average fee for Litecoin is staying around 10 to 20 cents, and bitcoin bouncing between a low of $1.50 and $8.00 recently. This means you would pay less in fees to convert the same total value into fiat or USD in this case.
If you were to compare this to the average credit card transaction fees, of say 2.5%, any transaction over $5.00 would be more profitable through Litecoin.
Reference of fees found here: https://www.cardfellow.com/average-fees-for-credit-card-processing/#Typical
If you've heard of Litecoin, I'm sure you have heard the saying "Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold." But really, Litecoin should really be considered Platinum instead of silver. Platinum is stronger, more durable, and much more ductile. Over 20% of all consumer goods either contain platinum or are produced using platinum. Platinum is truly an enduring metal just as Litecoin is truly an enduring cryptocurrency. It will be 6 years old this October, bitcoin is 8 years old.
A few facts that demonstrate Litecoin's strength, durability, and ductility are listed below:
  1. Litecoin has a large economy and your current bitcoin technology should work on Litecoin with very little changes. If you don't use bitcoin, it is still easy to implement.
  2. Litecoin has the best combination of economic size and technical similarity to bitcoin than any other cryptocurrencies.
  3. Litecoin is capable of eight times as many transactions as bitcoin in a ten minute period.
  4. Litecoin has much faster confirmation times with blocks that are not full.
  5. Litecoin has proven its longevity compared to many other cryptocurrencies that have come and gone.
  6. Also, if changes ever need to be made to Litecoin, it doesn't take years to implement them. Litecoin implemented Segregated Witness before bitcoin, and will most likely run on the lightning network before bitcoin as well. If you don't deal with bitcoin, this all just means Litecoin is a front runner in implementing new technology and features.
  7. Litecoin is a limited supply coin, launched fairly, with no coins premined (no developer is hiding a majority somewhere), nor has it ever hard forked for any special interest groups. It is decentralized and no one person or group controls what happens to it and no one person or group can manipulate the market.
  8. Whole Litecoins are much more affordable than whole bitcoins. This helps eliminate some psychological barriers to entering the market.
In conclusion:
If your company was to accept Litecoin, I would be happy to start conducting my business with you.
If your company accepts bitcoin payments but not Litecoin, I hope I have helped shed some light on the benefits Litecoin could bring to your business.
If your business does not accept bitcoin payments, I hope I have introduced you to an alternative payment option that a large number of people transact with everyday who would love to add you to their list of merchants accepting Litecoin. It really is the currency of the future.
If you have any questions about Litecoin or need help in possibly implementing Litecoin into your business, please let us know. There are many of us here excited to help you transition into accepting Litecoin or to help you further and answer any questions you may have.
We can be found here:
[email protected]
[email protected]
https://www.reddit.com/Litecoin
https://twitter.com/LitecoinCA
http://litecoinalliance.org/
https://twitter.com/ltcfoundation
https://twitter.com/litecoinsupport
A few options of the easiest ways to implement Litecoin payments currently are:
  1. https://shapeshift.io - currently used by Overstock.com - "The Safest, Fastest Asset Exchange on Earth"
  2. https://coinpayments.net/ - Payment gateway for LTC & BTC
  3. https://alfacoins.com/ - an international LTC & BTC payment processor
  4. https://www.asmoney.com/ - an electronic payment system for LTC & BTC
  5. https://www.gocoin.com/ - Enabling merchants to accept BTC & LTC payments
  6. http://cointopay.com/ - Provides merchant services in LTC, BTC, & many others
  7. https://www.cryptowoo.com/ - a decentralized payment plugin to accept LTC, DOGE, & BTC
  8. https://gourl.io/ - an open source crypto-currency payment gateway
  9. https://litepaid.com/ - accept LTC, BTC, & over 25 others fast & easy
END EMAIL DRAFT ........................................................................................................................................
This below is for LTC spending reference. No need to include it in any email. Dots were added in for any mobile users who can't see the formatted lines.
Places to spend Litecoin:
Please feel free to mention any links/sites/businesses you know of - It took me a bit to compile this list or PM me and I will add your business link to whichever category you prefer. Also, please verify with the consumer they still accept Litecoin or are still an active domain before purchasing.
A Bit of Everything:
https://overstock.com - Furniture, Decor, Cars, Pet Adoptions, Jewelry, Clothing
http://bitroadmarket.com/en/ - Electronics , Home and Kitchen
http://shop.btcs.com/ - Jewelry, Coins, Shirts, Collectors Items
https://bitcoingalaxy.us/shop/ - Jewelry, Coins, Shirts, Collectors Items
https://www.all-mints.com/- Gift Cards, PCs, Clothing, Food, Tools, Perfume, Electronics, Bags, Shoes, Gifts, Pet Products
Art & Collectibles:
https://bitographs.com/ - Crypto Posters
https://dogmaportraits.uservoice.com/ - Prints of your uploaded pet photos
http://cryptoart.com/ - Crypto themed art
http://bitcoinsportscards.com/ - Sports Cards
http://aircraft-photos.com/ - Aircraft photos
http://www.juanmiguelsalas.com/blog/ - Art - Blogger
http://www.benzandbeamer.com/ - Luxury Cars
Clothing/Jewelry:
https://Digswag.com - Clothing, Unique Items, Pets, Home and Office
https://Coinpupil.com - Crypto themed clothing
https://allthingsluxury.biz/ - Fine Jewelry
http://www.afkapparel.co.uk/ - Geek/Gamer clothing
http://www.sakamaonline.com/ - Leather and Rugs
https://www.siamsecrets-auz.com/ - Siam clothing
https://cryptocurrencygear.com/ - Crypto gear
https://www.topshelftoker.com/ - Shirt and Hat
https://allthingsdecentral.com/ - Card games, Hardware wallets, clothing, Beginners Box
http://shiresoaps.com/ - Soap
https://5mr.com/ - Baby Wearing
https://www.cryptojeweler.com/ - Jewelry
https://www.cheveux-naturels.com/ - Hair Extensions
https://www.etsy.com/shop/JestersLeather - Leather
http://www.cryptoverge.com/ - Crypto clothing
http://moniebug.com/ - Chlidren's Clothing (Launch Party Sept 30th - Coming Soon)
https://chicagogemshop.com/ - Precious Gems and Crystals
https://litecoinmerch.com/ - Litecoin Merchandise - Donates 25% Back to LTC Foundation!
https://twitter.com/LitecoinMerch
Domains/Hosting/and Other Digital Services:
https://nameselling.com - Domain names
http://www.lovinghosting.com/ - Linux Web Hosting
http://www.lovingdomains.com/ - Domain names
https://www.vps-city.com/ - Virtual Private Servers
https://flokinet.is/en/ - Anonymous Servers
https://coinshost.com/en/ - Web Hosting and DDos Protection
http://www.qhoster.com/ - Hosting, VPS, Servers, Domains
https://briehost.com/ - Hosting, VPS, Servers, Domains
https://www.hostmycode.in/ - Hosting, VPS, Servers, Domains, Wordpress, SSD Reseller
https://www.cinfu.com/ - Shared Hosting, VPS, Dedicated Servers, Domains, SSL Digital Certificates
http://ellenet.com.au/ - Web Hosting, Web Design, Server Maintenance, Web Development
https://247zilla.com/ - Cloud Hosting
https://hosthavoc.com - Game/Minecraft/Voice Servers and Web Hosting
https://www.simrai.com/ - Game/Minecraft/Voice Servers and Web Hosting, Package Deals
https://143vpn.com/ - VPN, DDoS protection
https://torguard.net/ - VPN, Anonymous Email, Anonymous Proxy
https://www.trilightzone.org/ - VPN Services
http://gameservers.today/ - Game and Voice Servers
https://xwebhosting.org/ - Dedicated and Cloud Servers, Web Hosting, Datacenters
http://www.onenetwork.net/ - Servers and VPS
http://instantcpanelhosting.com/ $0.5 Hosting, $4 VPS, Domains, Dedicated Servers, SSL
https://koddos.net/ - DDoS protection, Off shore hosting
http://www.coinrdp.com/
https://axelwebhosting.com - Web Hosting
18+:
http://www.vieci.com/# - Assorted Adult Products
Food and Drinks:
https://tealet.com/litecoin - Assorted Teas, Loose Leaf
https://www.drinkcham.com/ - Award Winning Cold Brew Tea
https://www.cryptomercado.com/ - Coffee, Jerky, Nuts, Snacks
https://crypto-coffee.com/ - Coffee
http://drapis.com/ - Raw Honey
Furniture:
https://distinguishedimports.com/shop/ - Hand Blown Glass, Decor, Vintage Furniture
Game Keys:
https://key4co.in/ - Game Keys
https://www.cjs-cdkeys.com/ - Game Keys and Physical Discs
https://gamerzheat.com/ - Game Keys and Software
Gift cards:
https://www.gyft.com
https://www.cryptodechange.com/
https://www.egifter.com/litecoin/
https://bitcoingiftcards.com.au/
https://www.cryfter.com/
https://giftoff.com/
Gold and Silver:
https://www.coaex.com/ - Gold and Silver Bars
http://www.bitgild.com/ - Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Accessories
http://www.bitcoinmetals.us/ - Copper, Gold, and Silver Bullions
Law firms:
https://sohovichlaw.com/ - DUI Defense
Miscellaneous:
http://coinmap.org - Map of Local Businesses
https://www.unlockbase.com/ - Unlock iPhone
https://www.custommuzzlebrakes.com/ - Custom Gun/Rifle Parts
http://www.getballistic.com/ - Body boards
http://www.3dp4btc.com/ - 3D Printing
Music:
http://www.shanthagopian.com/
http://www.progmegastore.com/store/ - Memorabilia, Vinyl, and Collectors Items, CDs and DVDs
http://cryptopay.trebaltek.ca/wp/
Other Electronics:
http://www.thermostatenshop.nl/ - Thermostats
http://www.heat4feet.net/nl/ - Floor Heating maps, rugs, thermostats
http://www.opritverwarmingen.eu/ - Heating cables, thermostats, and control systems
https://www.vorstvrij.net/nl/ - Heating cables and thermostats
http://www.keraheat.com/ - Assorted heating products
Pet Supplies:
http://cryptopet.com/ (Out of date site)
Physical Coins:
http://www.lealana.com/ (also sold on bitcointalk.org forum)
Travel:
https://www.cheapair.com - Plane tickets
https://btctrip.com/ - Festivals, Burning Man, Museums, Trips
http://finnatravel.com/ - Travel Agency
https://www.mercadoviagens.com/ - Brazil Travel Agency
http://3s.ee/booking/# - Estonia Hotel
https://www.surfranchnicaragua.com/bitcoins - All Inclusive Nicaragua Resort
Vape Nation:
https://arkansaseliquid.com/ - Vape Shop
https://www.vaposhop.com/ - Vape Shop
https://azarius.net/ - Assorted 'exhalant' supplies
http://btcheadshop.com/- Assorted 'exhalant' supplies
https://www.fogonthetyne.eu/- Vape Shop
https://www.ecigsplus.com/- Vape Shop
https://vapourdepot.com/- Vape Shop
http://www.tobaccoseed.company/ - 'Grow your own' Tobacco Seeds
https://kingpenvapes.com/- Vape Shop
http://www.digitalcloudvapor.com/- Vape Shop
Current Litecoin Developments - For Reference
Litecoin Roadmap - https://litecoincore.org/
Lightning Network
LN - vid by LTC Foundation's Franklyn
ln.network
RSK - Rootstock Sidechains
RSK - vid by LTC Foundation's Franklyn
rsk.co
MAST - Smart Contracts
Inside MAST: The Little-Known Plan to Advance Bitcoin Smart Contracts
Multisig Wallets
Multisig - vid by LTC Foundation's Franklyn
If you find any errors, mistakes, have suggestions of websites, comments on the wording, or what have you, just let me know in the comments or through PM. Also, as a disclaimer: I can not confirm every website above is still active or still accepts LTC, some accept but you have to email them first. I also left all the gambling websites out because those are hard to verify their trustworthiness.
Also, feel free to cross post this anywhere you want on the internet. You can edit and create whatever medium, youtube, twitter, reddit, voat, 4chan, bloomberg post you want. Feel absolutely free to get all that sweet sweet karma for yourself.
EDIT: I'll no longer keep this list up. I'll keep updating https://redd.it/6w0khi over in litecoinmarkets so you can always link to that.
submitted by 1JoeLite1 to litecoin [link] [comments]

Block size limit debate history lesson

Pre 2013
Bitcoin users and developers have near universal agreement that the block size limit is a temporary feature must be raised and/or removed. Preparing for this hard fork is one of lead developer Gavin's top priorities.
https://web.archive.org/web/20140328052630/https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Talk:Scalability
MAX_BLOCK_SIZE has always been planned to increase as needed. That limitation should be ignored. theymos 17:15, 4 March 2011 (GMT)
What Theymos said. Increasing MAX_BLOCK_SIZE will be done when "lightweight, header-only" client mode is done. Until then, block size has to be kept under control.--Gavin Andresen 00:19, 5 March 2011 (GMT)
However development priorities are not very unified, as noted by one observer:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122013.msg1390298#msg1390298
When I joined this forum I was completely wrong calling the Bitcoin core development team "Bitcoin bunker". Now that I understand the situation better I know that there's no single bunker. There are numerous one-or-two-person cubbyholes that may occasionally form the aliances to shoot at the occupant of another cubbyhole. The situation conforms better to the distributed paradigm inherent in the design of Bitcoin.
2013
For the first time in Bitcoin's history, arguments begin to erupt regarding the desirability of increasing the block size limit.
Many of the proponents in favor of making the block size limit permanent are investors in competing currencies/payment systems and this fact was not lost on observers of the era and can easily be confirmed by viewing the profiles of the participants:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140233.0;all
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144895.0;all
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=221111.0;all
In May of 2013, Peter Todd funds the production of a propaganda video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZp7UGgBR0I
None of the claims in this video are true, but it is effective in creating drama. Tensions rise and development work grinds nearly to a halt due to infighting.
BTC market share is 95%.
In December, Gregory Maxwell begins to revive the idea of sidechains along with Adam Back, TheBlueMatt, and other individuals who will go on to form Blockstream.
They begin promoting sidechains as an alternative to Bitcoin scaling.
http://web.archive.org/web/20140226095319/http://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/wizards/2013-12-18.txt
2014
April 7: Unwilling to deal with the drama any further, Gavin steps down as lead developer. At the time the BTC market share is 90%.
Sidechain discussion is well underway, yet a few people still manage to speak up to point out that sidechains should not be treated as an alternative to scaling Bitcoin. You may notice some familiar posters in these threads:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=566704.0;all
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0;all
In October, Blockstream.com publishes their sidechain whitepaper:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831527.0;all
The response is underwhelming.
On November 17, Blockstream announces the securing of $21 million in seed funding.
BTC market share is 91%.
2015
On June 22, Gavin Andresen proposes BIP101 to increase the block size limit as the conclusion of his work performed since stepping down as lead developer.
On August 6, Mike Hearn announces BitcoinXT, a full node implementation that includes BIP101.
Many Blockstream employees, including Adam Back, call this effort a "coup", a claim that can not be made without admitting they believe themselves to be the legitimate rulers of Bitcoin.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/networks/the-bitcoin-for-is-a-coup
In October, Blockstream employee Pieter Wuille proposes "Segregated Witness":
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1210235.0
Post-2015
This is the time period most Bitcoin users are familiar with, which really only represents the tail end of a five year long fight to prevent the planned block size limit increase.
The BTC market share has been steadily dropping since the anti-scaling propaganda began in late 2012/early 2013.
It currently stands at 66%.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
submitted by ABlockInTheChain to btc [link] [comments]

An attempt at a fully comprehensive look at how to scale bitcoin. Lets bring Bitcoin out of Beta!

 
WARNING THIS IS GOING TO BE A REALLY REALLY LONG POST BUT PLEASE READ IT ALL. SCALING BITCOIN IS A COMPLEX ISSUE! HOPEFULLY HAVING ALL THE INFO IN ONE PLACE SHOULD BE USEFUL
 
Like many people in the community I've spent the past month or so looking deeply into the bitcoin scaling debate. I feel there has never been a fully comprehensive thread on how bitcoin could scale. The closest I have seen is gavinandresen's medium posts back in the summer describing the problem and a solution, and pre-emptively answering supposed problems with the solution. While these posts got to the core of the issue and spawned the debate we have been having, they were quite general and could have used more data in support. This is my research and proposal to scale bitcoin and bring the community back together.
 
 
The Problem
 
There seems to me to be five main fundamental forces at play in finding a balanced solution;
  • 'node distribution',
  • 'mining decentralisation',
  • 'network utility',
  • 'time',
  • 'adoption'.
 
 
Node Distribution
Bandwidth has a relationship to node count and therefore 'node distribution'. This is because if bandwidth becomes too high then fewer people will be able to run a node. To a lesser extent bandwidth also effects 'mining decentralisation' as miners/pool owners also need to be able to run a node. I would argue that the centralisation pressures in relation to bandwidth are negligible though in comparison to the centralisation pressure caused by the usefulness of larger pools in reducing variance. The cost of a faster internet connection is negligible in comparison to the turnover of the pools. It is important to note the distinction between bandwidth required to propagate blocks quickly and the bandwidth required to propagate transactions. The bandwidth required to simply propagate transactions is still low today.
New node time (i.e. the time it takes to start up a new node) also has a relationship with node distribution. i.e. If it takes too long to start a new node then fewer people will be willing to take the time and resources to start a new node.
Storage Space also has a relationship with node distribution. If the blockchain takes up too much space on a computer then less people will be willing to store the whole blockchain.
Any suitable solution should look to not decrease node distribution significantly.
 
Mining Decentralisation
Broadcast time (the time it takes to upload a block to a peer) has a relationship with mining centralisation pressures. This is because increasing broadcast time increases the propagation time, which increases the orphan rate. If the orphan rate it too high then individual miners will tend towards larger pools.
Validation time (the time it to validate a block) has a relationship with mining centralisation pressures. This is because increasing validation time increases the propagation time, which increases the orphan rate. If the orphan rate it too high then individual miners will tend towards larger pools.
Any suitable solution should look to not increase mining centralisation significantly.
 
Network Utility
Network Utility is one that I find is often overlooked, is not well understood but is equally as important. The network utility force acts as a kind of disclaimer to the other two forces. It has a balancing effect. Increasing the network utility will likely increase user adoption (The more useful something is, the more people will want to use it) and therefore decreasing network utility will likely decrease user adoption. User adoption has a relationship with node count. i.e. the more people, companies and organisations know about and use bitcoin, the more people, companies and organisations that will run nodes. For example we could reduce block size down to 10KB, which would reduce broadcast time and validation time significantly. This would also therefore reduce mining centralisation pressures significantly. What is very important to realise though is that network utility would also be significantly be reduced (fewer people able to use bitcoin) and therefore so would node distribution. Conversely, if we increased the block size (not the limit) right now to 10GB, the network utility would be very high as bitcoin would be able to process a large number of transactions but node distribution would be low and mining centralisation pressures would be high due to the larger resource requirements.
Any suitable solution should look to increase network utility as time increases.
 
Time
Time is an important force because of how technology improves over time. Technology improves over time in a semi-predicable fashion (often exponential). As we move through time, the cost of resources required to run the bitcoin network (if the resource requirements remained static) will decrease. This means that we are able to increase resource requirements proportional to technological improvements/cost reductions without any increase in costs to the network. Technological improvements are not perfectly predictable though so it could be advantageous to allow some buffer room for when technological improvements do not keep up with predictions. This buffer should not be applied at the expense of the balance between the other forces though (i.e. make the buffer too big and network utility will be significantly decreased).
 
 
Adoption
Increasing adoption means more people using the bitcoin/blockchain network. The more people use bitcoin the more utility it has, and the more utility Bitcoin has the more people will want to use it (network effect). The more people use bitcoin, the more people there that have an incentive to protect bitcoin.
Any suitable solution should look to increase adoption as time increases.
 
 
The Solution Proposed by some of the bitcoin developers - The Lightning Network
 
The Lightning Network (LN) is an attempt at scaling the number of transactions that can happen between parties by not publishing any transaction onto the blockchain unless it is absolutely necessary. This is achieved by having people pool bitcoin together in a "Channel" and then these people can transact instantly within that channel. If any shenanigans happen between any of the parties, the channel can be closed and the transactions will be settled on the blockchain. The second part of their plan is limit the block size to turn bitcoin into a settlement network. The original block size limit of 1MB was originally put in place by Satoshi as an anti-DOS measure. It was to make sure a bad actor could not propagate a very large block that would crash nodes and increase the size of the blockchain unnecessarily. Certain developers now want to use this 1MB limit in a different way to make sure that resource requirements will stay low, block space always remains full, fees increase significantly and people use the lightning network as their main way of transacting rather than the blockchain. They also say that keeping the resource requirements very low will make sure that bitcoin remains decentralised.
 
Problems with The Lightning Network
The LN works relatively well (in theory) when the cost and time to publish a set of transactions to the network are kept low. Unfortunately, when the cost and time to publish a set of transactions on the blockchain become high, the LN's utility is diminished. The trust you get from a transaction on the LN comes only from the trustless nature of having transactions published to the bitcoin network. What this means is that if a transaction cannot be published on the bitcoin network then the LN transaction is not secured at all. As transactions fees rise on the bitcoin blockchain the LN utility is diminished. Lets take an example:
  • Cost of publishing a transaction to the bitcoin network = $20
  • LN transaction between Bob and Alice = $20.
  • Transaction between Bob and Alice has problem therefore we want to publish it to the blockchain.
  • Amount of funds left after transaction is published to the blockchain = $20 - $20 = $0.
This is also not a binary situation. If for example in this scenario, the cost to publish the transaction to blockchain was $10 then still only 50% of the transaction would be secure. It is unlikely anyone really call this a secure transaction.
Will a user make a non-secured/poorly secured transaction on the LN when they could make the same transaction via an altcoin or non-cryptocurrency transaction and have it well secured? It's unlikely. What is much more likely to happen is that transaction that are not secured by bitcoin because of the cost to publish to the blockchain will simply overflow into altcoins or will simply not happen on any cryptocurrency network. The reality is though, that we don't know exactly what will happen because there is no precedent for it.
Another problem outside of security is convenience. With a highly oversaturated block space (very large backlog of transactions) it could take months to have a transaction published to the blockchain. During this time your funds will simply be stuck. If you want to buy a coffee with a shop you don't have a channel open with, instead of simply paying with bitcoin directly, you would have to wait months to open a channel by publishing a transaction to the bitcoin blockchain. I think your coffee might be a little cold by then (and mouldy).
I suggest reading this excellent post HERE for other rather significant problems with the LN when people are forced to use it.
The LN is currently not complete and due to its high complexity it will take some time to have industry wide implementation. If it is implemented on top of a bitcoin-as-a-settlement-network economy it will likely have very little utility.
 
Uses of The LN
The LN is actually an extremely useful layer-2 technology when it is used with it's strengths. When the bitcoin blockchain is fast and cheap to transact on, the LN is also extremely useful. One of the major uses for the LN is for trust-based transactions. If you are transacting often between a set of parties you can truly trust then using LN makes absolute sense since the trustless model of bitcoin is not necessary. Then once you require your funds to be unlocked again it will only take a short time and small cost to open them up to the full bitcoin network again. Another excellent use of LN would be for layer-3 apps. For example a casino app: Anyone can by into the casino channel and play using real bitcoins instantly in the knowledge that is anything nefarious happens you can instantly settle and unlock your funds. Another example would be a computer game where you can use real bitcoin in game, the only difference is that you connect to the game's LN channel and can transact instantly and cheaply. Then whenever you want to unlock your funds you can settle on the blockchain and use your bitcoins normally again.
LN is hugely more powerful, the more powerful bitcoin is. The people making the LN need to stick with its strengths rather than sell it as an all-in-one solution to bitcoin's scaling problem. It is just one piece of the puzzle.
 
 
Improving Network Efficiency
 
The more efficient the network, the more we can do with what we already have. There are a number of possible efficiency improvements to the network and each of them has a slightly different effect.
 
Pruning
Pruning allows the stored blockchain size to be reduced significantly by not storing old data. This has the effect of lowering the resource requirements of running a node. a 40GB unpruned blockchain would be reduced in size to 550MB. (It is important to note that a pruned node has lower utility to the network)
 
Thin Blocks
Thin blocks uses the fact that most of the nodes in the network already have a list of almost all the same transactions ready to be put into the blockchain before a block is found. If all nodes use the same/similar policy for which transactions to include in a block then you only need to broadcast a small amount of information across the network for all nodes to know which transactions have been included (as opposed to broadcasting a list of all transactions included in the block). Thin Blocks have the advantage of reducing propagation which lowers the mining centralisation pressure due to orphaned blocks.
 
libsecp256k1 libsecp256k1 allows a more efficient way of validating transactions. This means that propagation time is reduced which lowers the mining centralisation pressure due to orphaned blocks. It also means reduced time to bootstrap the blockchain for a new node.
 
Serialised Broadcast
Currently block transmission to peers happens in parallel to all connected peers. Obviously for block propagation this is a poor choice in comparison to serial transmission to each peer one by one. Using parallel transmission means that the more peers you have, the slower the propagation, whereas serial transmission does not suffer this problem. The problem that serial transmission does suffer from though is variance. If the order that you send blocks to peers in is random, then it means sometimes you will send blocks to a peer who has a slow/fast connection and/or is able to validate slowly/quickly. This would mean the average propagation time would increase with serialised transmission but depending on your luck you would sometimes have faster propagation and sometimes have slower propagation. As this will lower propagation time it will also lower the mining centralisation pressure due to orphaned blocks. (This is just a concept at the moment but I don't see why it couldn't be implemented).
 
Serialised Broadcast Sorting
This is a fix for the variance that would occur due to serialised broadcast. This sorts the order that you broadcast a block to each peer into; fastest upload + validation speed first and slowest upload speed and validation speed last. This not only decreases the variance to zero but also allows blocks to propagation to happen much faster. This also has the effect of lowering the mining centralisation pressure due to orphaned blocks. (This is just a concept at the moment but I don't see why it couldn't be implemented).
 
Here is a table below that shows roughly what the effects these solutions should have.
Name Bandwidth Broadcast Time Validation Time New Node Time Storage Space
Pruning 1 1 1 1 0.014
Thin Blocks 0.42 0.1 0.1 1 1
libsecp256k1 1 1 0.2 0.6 1
Serialised Broadcast 1 0.5 1 1 1
KYN 1 0.75 1 1 1
Segregated Witness 1 1 1 0.4 1
TOTAL 0.42 0.0375 0.02 0.24 0.014
Multiplier 2.38 26.7 50 - 70
(The "multiplier" shows how many times higher the block size could be relative to the specific function.)
 
 
The Factors in Finding a Balanced Solution
 
At the beginning of this post I detailed a relatively simple framework for finding a solution by describing what the problem is. There seems to me to be five main fundamental forces at play in finding a balanced solution; 'node distribution', 'mining decentralisation', 'network utility', 'time' and 'adoption'. The optimal solution needs to find a balance between all of these forces taking into account a buffer to offset our inability to predict the future with absolute accuracy.
To find a suitable buffer we need to assign a set of red line values which certain values should not pass if we want to make sure bitcoin continues to function as well as today (at a minimum). For example, percentage of orphans should stay below a certain value. These values can only be a best estimate due to the complexity of bitcoin economics, although I have tried to provide as sound reasoning as possible.
 
Propagation time
It seems a fair limit for this would be roughly what we have now. Bitcoin is still functioning now. Could mining be more decentralised? Yes, of course, but it seems bitcoin is working fine right now and therefore our currently propagation time for blocks is a fairly conservative limit to set. Currently 1MB blocks take around 15 seconds to propagate more than 50% of the network. 15 second propagation time is what I will be using as a limit in the solution to create a buffer.
 
Orphan Rate
This is obviously a value that is a function of propagation time so the same reasoning should be used. I will use a 3% limit on orphan rate in the solution to create a buffer.
 
Non-Pruned Node Storage Cost
For this I am choosing a limit of $200 in the near-term and $600 in the long-term. I have chosen these values based on what I think is a reasonable (maximum) for a business or enthusiast to pay to run a full node. As the number of transactions increases as more people use bitcoin the number of people willing to pay a higher price to run a node will also increase although the percentage of people will decrease. These are of course best guess values as there is no way of knowing exactly what percentage of users are willing to pay what.
 
Pruned Node Storage Cost
For this I am choosing a limit of $3 in the near-term (next 5 years) and $9 in the long-term (Next 25 years). I have chosen these values based on what I think is a reasonable (maximum) for normal bitcoin user to pay. In fact this cost will more likely be zero as almost all users have an amount of storage free on their computers.
 
Percentage of Downstream Bandwidth Used
This is a best guess at what I think people who run nodes would be willing to use to be connected to the bitcoin network directly. I believe using 10% (maximum) of a users downstream bandwidth is the limit of what is reasonable for a full node (pruned and non-pruned). Most users would continue to access the blockchain via SPV wallets though. Downstream is generally a much more valuable resource to a user than upstream due to the nature of the internet usage.
 
Percentage of Upstream Bandwidth Used
This is a best guess at what I think people who run nodes would be willing to use to be connected to the bitcoin network directly. I believe using 25% (maximum) of a users downstream bandwidth is the limit of what is reasonable for a full node (pruned and non-pruned). Most users would continue to access the blockchain via SPV wallets though. Upstream is generally a much less valuable resource to a user than downstream due to the nature of the internet usage.
 
Time to Bootstrap a New Node
My limit for this value is at 5 days using 50% of downstream bandwidth in the near-term and 30 days in the long-term. This seems like a reasonable number to me for someone who wants to start running a full node. Currently opening a new bank account takes at least week until everything is set up and you have received your cards, so it seems to me people would be willing to wait this long to become connected. Again, this is a best guess on what people would be willing to do to access the blockchain in the future. Most users requiring less security will be able to use an SPV wallet.
It is important to note that we only need enough nodes to make sure the blockchain is distributed across many places with many backups of the full blockchain. It is likely that a few thousand is a minimum for this. Increasing this amount to hundreds of thousands or millions of full nodes is not necessarily that much of an advantage to node distribution but could be a significant disadvantage to mining centralisation. This is because the more nodes you have in the network, the longer it takes to propagate >50% of it.
 
Storage Cost Price Reduction Over Time
Storage cost follows a linear logarithmic trend. Costs of HDD reducing by 10 times every 5 years, although this has slowed over the past few years. This can be attributed to the flooding in South East Asia and the transition to SSD technology. SSD technology also follows the linear logarithmic trend of costs reducing 10 times every 5 years, or roughly decreasing 37% per year.
 
Average Upload and Download Bandwidth Increases Over Time
Average upload and download bandwidth increases in a linear logarithmic trend. Both upload and download bandwidth follow the same trend of doubling roughly every two years, or increasing 40% per year.
 
Price
I was hesitant to include this one here but I feel it is unavoidable. Contrary to what people say (often when the price is trending downwards) bitcoin price is an extremely important metric in the long-term. Depending on bitcoin's price, bitcoin's is useful to; enthusiasts->some users->small companies->large companies->nations->the world, in roughly that order. The higher bitcoin's price is the more liquid the market will be and the more difficult it will be to move the price, therefore increasing bitcoin's utility. Bitcoin's price in the long-term is linked to adoption, which seems to happen in waves, as can be seen in the price bubbles over the years. If we are planning/aiming for bitcoin to at least become a currency with equal value to one of the worlds major currencies then we need to plan for a market cap and price that reflect that. I personally think there are two useful targets we should use to reflect our aims. The first, lower target is for bitcoin to have a market cap the size of a major national currency. This would put the market cap at around 2.1 trillion dollars or $100,000 per bitcoin. The second higher target is for bitcoin to become the world's major reserve currency. This would give bitcoin a market cap of around 21 trillion dollars and a value of $1,000,000 per bitcoin. A final, and much more difficult target is likely to be bitcoin as the only currency across the world, but I am not sure exactly how this could work so for now I don't think this is worth considering.
 
As price increases, so does the subsidy reward given out to miners who find blocks. This reward is semi-dynamic in that it remains static (in btc terms) until 210,000 blocks are found and then the subsidy is then cut in half. This continues to happen until all 21,000,000 bitcoins have been mined. If the value of each bitcoin increases faster than the btc denominated subsidy decreases then the USD denominated reward will be averagely increasing. Historically the bitcoin price has increased significantly faster than subsidy decreases. The btc denominated subsidy halves roughly every 4 years but the price of bitcoin has historically increased roughly 50 fold in the same time.
 
Bitcoin adoption should happen in a roughly s-curve dynamic like every other technology adoption. This means exponential adoption until the market saturation starts and adoption slows, then the finally is the market becomes fully saturated and adoption slowly stops (i.e. bitcoin is fully adopted). If we assume the top of this adoption s-curve has one of the market caps above (i.e. bitcoin is successful) then we can use this assumption to see how we can transition from a subsidy paid network to a transaction fee paid network.
 
Adoption
Adoption is the most difficult metric to determine. In fact it is impossible to determine accurately now, let alone in the future. It is also the one of the most important factors. There is no point in building software that no one is going to use after all. Equally, there is no point in achieving a large amount of adoption if bitcoin offers none of the original value propositions. Clearly there is a balance to be had. Some amount of bitcoin's original value proposition is worth losing in favour of adoption, and some amount of adoption is worth losing to keep bitcoin's original value proposition. A suitable solution should find a good balance between the two. It is clear though that any solution must have increased adoption as a basic requirement, otherwise it is not a solution at all.
 
One major factor related to adoption that I rarely see mentioned, is stability and predictability. This is relevant to both end users and businesses. End users rely on stability and predictability so that they do not have to constantly check if something has changed. When a person goes to get money from a cash machine or spend money in a shop, their experience is almost identical every single time. It is highly dependable. They don't need to keep up-to-date on how cash machines or shops work to make sure they are not defrauded. They know exactly what is going to happen without having to expend any effort. The more deviation from the standard experience a user experiences and the more often a user experiences a deviation, the less likely a user is going to want to continue to use that service. Users require predictability extending into the past. Businesses who's bottom line is often dependent on reliable services also require stability and predictability. Businesses require predictability that extends into the future so that they can plan. A business is less likely to use a service for which they do not know they can depend on in the future (or they know they cannot depend on).
For bitcoin to achieve mass adoption it needs a long-term predictable and stable plan for people to rely on.
 
 
The Proposal
 
This proposal is one based on determining a best fit balance of every factor and a large enough buffer to allows for our inability to perfectly predict the future. No one can predict the future with absolutely certainty but it does not mean we cannot make educated guesses and plan for it.
 
The first part of the proposal is to spend 2016 implementing all available efficiency improvements (i.e the ones detailed above) and making sure the move to a scaled bitcoin happens as smoothly as possible. It seems we should set a target of implementing all of the above improvements within the first 6 months of 2016. These improvements should be implemented in the first hardfork of its kind, with full community wide consensus. A hardfork with this much consensus is the perfect time to test and learn from the hardforking mechanism. Thanks to Seg Wit, this would give us an effective 2 fold capacity increase and set us on our path to scalability.
 
The second part of the proposal is to target the release of a second hardfork to happen at the end of 2016. Inline with all the above factors this would start with a real block size limit increase to 2MB (effectively increasing the throughput to 4x compared to today thanks to Seg Wit) and a doubling of the block size limit every two years thereafter (with linear scaling in between). The scaling would end with an 8GB block size limit in the year 2039.
 
 
How does the Proposal fit inside the Limits
 
 
Propagation time
If trends for average upload and bandwidth continue then propagation time for a block to reach >50% of the nodes in the network should never go above 1s. This is significantly quickly than propagation times we currently see.
In a worst case scenario we can we wrong in the negative direction (i.e. bandwidth does not increase as quickly as predicted) by 15% absolute and 37.5% relative (i.e. bandwidth improves at a rate of 25% per year rather than the predicted 40%) and we would still only ever see propagation times similar to today and it would take 20 years before this would happen.
 
Orphan Rate
Using our best guess predictions the orphan rate would never go over 0.2%.
In a worst case scenario where we are wrong in our bandwidth prediction in the negative direction by 37.5% relative, orphan rate would never go above 2.3% and it would take over 20 years to happen.
 
Non-Pruned Node Storage Cost
Using our best guess predictions the cost of storage for a non-pruned full node would never exceed $40 with blocks consistently 50% full and would in fact decrease significantly after reaching the peak cost. If blocks were consistently 100% full (which is highly unlikely) then the maximum cost of an un-pruned full node would never exceed $90.
In a worst case scenario where we are wrong in our bandwidth prediction in the negative direction by 37.5% relative and we are wrong in our storage cost prediction by 20% relative (storage cost decreases in cost by 25% per year instead of the predicted 37% per year), we would see a max cost to run a node with 50% full blocks of $100 by 2022 and $300 by 2039. If blocks are always 100% full then this max cost rises to $230 by 2022 and $650 in 2039. It is important to note that for storage costs to be as high as this, bitcoin will have to be enormously successful, meaning many many more people will be incentivised to run a full node (businesses etc.)
 
Pruned Node Storage Cost
Using our best guess predictions the cost of storage for a pruned full node would never exceed $0.60 with blocks consistently 50% full. If blocks were consistently 100% full (which is highly unlikely) then the max cost of an un-pruned full node would never exceed $1.30.
In a worst case scenario where we are wrong in our bandwidth prediction in the negative direction by 37.5% relative and we are wrong in our storage cost prediction by 20% relative (storage cost decreases in cost by 25% per year instead of the predicted 37% per year), we would see a max cost to run a node with 50% full blocks of $1.40 by 2022 and $5 by 2039. If blocks are always 100% full then this max cost rises to $3.20 by 2022 and $10 in 2039. It is important to note that at this amount of storage the cost would be effectively zero since users almost always have a large amount of free storage space on computers they already own.
 
Percentage of Downstream Bandwidth Used
Using our best guess predictions running a full node will never use more than 0.3% of a users download bandwidth (on average).
In a worst case scenario we can we wrong in the negative direction by 37.5% relative in our bandwidth predictions and we would still only ever see a max download bandwidth use of 4% (average).
 
Percentage of Upstream Bandwidth Used
Using our best guess predictions running a full node will never use more than 1.6% of a users download bandwidth (on average).
In a worst case scenario we can we wrong in the negative direction by 37.5% relative in our bandwidth predictions and we would only ever see a max download bandwidth use of 24% (average) and this would take over 20 years to occur.
 
Time to Bootstrap a New Node
Using our best guess predictions bootstrapping a new node onto the network should never take more than just over a day using 50% bandwidth.
In a worst case scenario we can we wrong in the negative direction by 37.5% relative in our bandwidth predictions and it would take one and 1/4 days to bootstrap the blockchain using 50% of the download bandwidth. By 2039 it would take 16 days to bootstrap the entire blockchain when using 50% bandwidth. I think it is important to note that by this point it is very possible the bootstrapping the blockchain could very well be done by simply buying an SSD with blockchain already bootstrapped. 16 days would be a lot of time to download software but it does not necessarily mean a decrease in centralisation. As you will see in the next section, if bitcoin has reached this level of adoption, there may well be many parties will to spend 16 days downloading the blockchain.
 
What if Things Turn Out Worse than the Worse Case?
While it is likely that future trends in the technology required to scale bitcoin will continue relatively similar to the past, it is possible that the predictions are completely and utterly wrong. This plan takes this into account though by making sure the buffer is large enough to give us time to adjust our course. Even if no technological/cost improvements (near zero likelihood) are made to bandwidth and storage in the future this proposal still gives us years to adjust course.
 
 
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
 
Significantly Increased Adoption
For comparison, Paypal handles around 285 transactions per second (tps), VISA handles around 2000tps and the total global non-cash transactions are around 12,400tps.
Currently bitcoin is capable of handling a maximum of around 3.5 transactions every second which are published to the blockchain roughly every 10 minutes. With Seg Wit implemented via a hardfork, bitcoin will be capable or around 7tps. With this proposal bitcoin will be capable of handling more transactions than Paypal (assuming Paypal experiences growth of around 7% per year) in the year 2027. Bitcoin will overtake VISA's transaction capability by the year 2035 and at the end of the growth cycle in 2039 it will be able to handle close to 50% of the total global non-cash transactions.
When you add on top second layer protocols( like the LN), sidechains, altcoins and off-chain transactions, there should be more than enough capacity for the whole world and every possible conceivable use for digital value transfer.
 
Transitioning from a Subsidy to a Transaction Fee Model
Currently mining is mostly incentivised by the subsidy that is given by the network (currently 25btc per block). If bitcoin is to widely successful it is likely that price increases will continue to outweigh btc denominated subsidy decreases for some time. This means that currently it is likely to be impossible to try to force the network into matching a significant portion of the subsidy with fees. The amount of fees being paid to miners has averagely increased over time and look like they will continue to do so. It is likely that the optimal time for fees to start seriously replacing the subsidy is when bitcoin adoption starts to slow. Unless you take a pessimistic view of bitcoin (thinking bitcoin is as big as it ever will be), it is reasonable to assume this will not happen for some time.
With this proposal, using an average fee of just $0.05, total transaction fees per day would be:
  • Year 2020 = $90,720
  • Year 2025 = $483,840.00
  • Year 2030 = $2,903,040.00
  • Year 2035 = $15,482,880.00
  • Year 2041 = $123,863,040.00 (full 8GB Blocks)
Miners currently earn a total of around $2 million dollars per day in revenue, significantly less than the $124 million dollars in transaction fee revenue possible using this proposal. That also doesn't include the subsidy which would still play some role until the year 2140. This transaction fee revenue would be a yearly revenue of $45 billion for miners when transaction fees are only $0.05 on average.
 
 
Proposal Data
You can use these two spreadsheets (1 - 2 ) to see the various metrics at play over time. The first spreadsheet shows the data using the predicted trends and the second spreadsheet shows the data with the worst case trends.
 
 
Summary
 
It's very clear we are on the edge/midst of a community (and possibly a network) split. This is a very dangerous situation for bitcoin. A huge divide has appeared in the community and opinions are becoming more and more entrenched on both sides. If we cannot come together and find a way forward it will be bad for everyone except bitcoin's competition and enemies. While this proposal is born from an attempt at finding a balance based on as many relevant factors as possible, it also fortunately happens to fall in between the two sides of the debate. Hopefully the community can see this proposal as a way of making a compromise, releasing the entrenchment and finding a way forward to scale bitcoin. I have no doubt that if we can do this, bitcoin will have enormous success in the years to come.
 
Lets bring bitcoin out of beta together!!
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Peter Rizun: A Bitcoin Fee Market Without A Blocksize Limit (Episode 172) Why Chinese Bitcoin Miners Are Not Happy With SegWit - According To Bobby Lee (The Cryptoverse #215) Bitcoin Ethereum Litecoin Technical Analysis Chart 9/24/2017 by ChartGuys.com Bitcoin & Litecoin's Big Issue [LAN] LONG TALK ABOUT LITECOIN AND SEGWIT

Bitcoin News SegWit Continues To Gain Support Among Bitcoin Community Members. Ever since the signaling for Segregated Witness began, there have been some doubts regarding its chances of success. This allowed Bitcoin SegWit to patch transaction malleability without becoming a hard-fork update. Now you know how segregated witness prevents transaction malleability, but the story of SegWit Bitcoin doesn’t end there. SegWit has affected the Bitcoin network in ways that Pieter Wuille didn’t even think of when he created it! Support for Segregated Witness continues to build, as Japanese exchange Coincheck has indicated they are ready for activation. Right now, the company is monitoring activation progress, but all of ... This process is known as Segregated Witness or SegWit. Digital signature accounts for 65% of the space in a given transaction. SegWit attempts to ignore the data attached to a signature by stripping off the signature from within the input and moving it to a structure towards the end of a transaction. This would increase the 1 MB limit for block sizes to a little under 4 MB. In addition to ... Segregated witness bitcoin Noch bis vor einigen Jahren war es beim Trading mit binären Optionen vollkommen normal, dass Anleger einen Bonus für die Kontoeröffnung erhalten haben. Dann gab es beispielsweise einen Bonus von 100 Prozent auf die erste Einzahlung oder litecoin address richest eine Willkommensprämie.

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Peter Rizun: A Bitcoin Fee Market Without A Blocksize Limit (Episode 172)

This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Queue LONG TALK ABOUT LITECOIN AND SEGWIT With both the Bitcoin Unlimited and Segregated Witness efforts far from reaching majority support and exploding transaction fees, the debate around how to scale Bitcoin continues on. One of the ... Depois de meses de novela, a atualização mais importante do bitcoin nos últimos anos foi finalmente ativada. Para saber mais: Segwit Charts: http://segwit.pa... Bitcoin Q&A: What is Segregated Witness? - Duration: 14:41. aantonop 15,982 views. 14:41 . Bitcoin Chart Analysis / Talk May 7 - BTC USD - Duration: 16:22. JD Marshall 810 views. 16:22. Bitcoin ...

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