Technische Analyse von Bitcoin / Dollar (BITSTAMP: BTCUSD ...
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Unlike other countries India ironically does not embrace new technology and thus momentum is low. Therefore I felt a need to connect with other bitcoin users in India to discuss , meet and promote Bitcoin in India. discuss wallets ,exchanges,price and other crypto assets.
There is a constant war being fought between goldbugs, like Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin enthusiasts so I decided to make an outline, with links, comparing and contrasting gold and Bitcoin. I made this in November of 2019 (thus the information therein is based on figures from that time) but, being scatter brained, neglected to post this for the Bitcoin community to see. The yardsticks I used to compare the two assets included the following: shipping/transactions costs, storage costs, censorship factor, settlement time, stock to flow, blockchain vs clearing house, validation, etc. I will also touch on Roosevelt's gold confiscation executive order in 1933, transporting gold during the Spanish Civil War in 1936, and the hypothetical cost for Venezuela to repatriate its gold more recently. I will provide a brief summary first then follow that with the outline I made. This information can be used as a tool for the Bitcoin community to combat some of the silly rhetoric coming from goldbugs such as Peter Schiff and James Rickards. I would like to make it clear, however, that I am not against gold and think that it performed its role as money very well in a technologically inferior era, namely Victorian times but I think Bitcoin performs the functions of money better than gold does in the current environment. I have been looking to make a contribution to the Bitcoin community and I hope this is a useful and educational tool for everyone who reads this. Summary: Shipping/transaction costs: 100 ounces of gold could be shipped for 315 dollars; the comparable dollar value in Bitcoin could be sent for 35 dollars using a non-segwit address. Using historical precendent, it would cost an estimated $32,997,989 to transport $1 billion in gold using the 3.3% fee that the Soviets charged the Spaniards in 1936; a $1 billion Bitcoin transaction moved for $690 last year by comparison. Please note that the only historic example we can provide for moving enormous sums of gold was when the government of Spain transported gold to Moscow during the Spanish Civil War in 1936. More information on this topic will be found in the notes section. Storage costs: 100 ounces of gold would require $451 per year to custody while the equivalent value of Bitcoin in dollar terms could be stored for the cost of a Ledger Nano S, $59.99. $1 billion USD value of gold would cost $2,900,000 per year while an Armory set up that is more secure would run you the cost of a laptop, $200-300. Censorship factor: Gold must pass through a 3rd party whenever it is shipped, whether for a transaction or for personal transportation. Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed when crossing international borders. The key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult. $46,000 of gold was seized in India despite the smugglers hiding it in their rectums. Settlement time: Shipping gold based on 100 ounces takes anywhere from 3-10 days while Bitcoin transactions clear in roughly 10 minutes depending on network congestion and fee size. Historic confiscation: Franklin Roosevelt confiscated and debased the paper value of gold in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. Since gold is physical in nature and value dense, it is often stored in custodial vaults like banks and so forth which act as a honeypot for rapacious governments. Stock to flow: Plan B's stock to flow model has become a favorite on twitter. Stock to flow measures the relationship between the total stock of an asset against the amount that is produced in a given year. Currently gold still has the highest value at 62 while Bitcoin sits at 50 in 2nd place. Bitcoin will overtake gold in 2024 after the next halving. Blockchain vs clearing house: gold payments historically passed through a 3rd party (clearinghouse) in order to be validated while Bitcoin transactions can be self validated through the use of a node. Key Takeaway from above- Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in terms of cost, speed, and censorship resistance. One could theoretically carry around an enormous sum of Bitcoin on a cold card while the equivalent dollar value of gold would require a wheelbarrow...and create an enormous target on the back of the transporter. With the exception of the stock to flow ratio (which will flip in Bitcoin's favor soon), Bitcoin is superior to gold by all metrics covered. Notes: Shipping/transaction costs Gold 100 oz = 155,500. 45 x 7 = $315 to ship 100 oz gold. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/2547831-how-much-does-it-cost-to-ship-silver-and-gold https://www.coininvest.com/en/shipping-prices/ 211 tonnes Venezuela; 3.3% of $10.5 billion = 346,478,880 or 32,997,989/billion usd http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ (counter party risk; maduro; quotes from article) Bitcoin 18 bitcoin equivalent value; 35 USD with legacy address https://blockexplorer.com/ https://bitcoinfees.info/ 1 billion; $690 dollars https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/someone-moved-1-billion-in-a-single-bitcoin-transaction/ Storage costs Gold .29% annually; https://sdbullion.com/gold-silver-storage 100 oz – $451/year $1 billion USD value – $2,900,000/year Bitcoin Ledger Nano S - $59.00 (for less bitcoin) https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s/transparent?flow_country=USA&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3ILV5O-Z5wIVTtbACh1zTAwqEAQYASABEgJ5SPD_BwE Armory - $200-300 cost of laptop for setup https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/ Censorship factor (must pass through 3rd party) Varies by country Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed Key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult $46,000 seized in India https://www.foxnews.com/travel/indian-airport-stops-29-passengers-smuggling-gold-in-their-rectums Settlement time Gold For 100 oz transaction by USPS 3-10 days (must pass through 3rd party) Bitcoin Roughly 10 minutes to be included in next block Historic confiscation-roosevelt 1933 Executive Order 6102 (forced spending, fed could ban cash, go through and get quotes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 “The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse” Stock to flow; https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 (explain what it is and use charts in article) Gold; SF of 62 Bitcoin; SF of 25 but will double to 50 after May (and to 100 in four years) Blockchain vs clearing house Transactions can be validated by running a full node vs. third party settlement Validation Gold; https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/cost-to-assay.6732/ (Read some responses) Bitcoin Cost of electricity to run a full node Breaking down Venezuela conundrum; http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ “The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached. Most of the gold was exchanged for Russian weaponry, with the Soviet Union keeping 2.1% of the funds in the form of commissions and brokerage, and an additional 1.2% in the form of transport, deposit, melting, and refining expenses.” “Venezuela would need to transport the gold in several trips, traders said, since the high value of gold means it would be impossible to insure a single aircraft carrying 211 tonnes. It could take about 40 shipments to move the gold back to Caracas, traders estimated. “It’s going to be quite a task. Logistically, I’m not sure if the central bank realises the magnitude of the task ahead of them,” said one senior gold banker.” “So maybe Chávez intends to take matters into his own hands, and just sail the booty back to Venezuela on one of his own naval ships. Again, the theft risk is obvious — seamen can be greedy too — and this time there would be no insurance. Chávez is pretty crazy, but I don’t think he’d risk $12 billion that way.” “Which leaves one final alternative. Gold is fungible, and people are actually willing to pay a premium to buy gold which is sitting in the Bank of England’s ultra-secure vaults. So why bother transporting that gold at all? Venezuela could enter into an intercontinental repo transaction, where it sells its gold in the Bank of England to some counterparty, and then promises to buy it all back at a modest discount, on condition that it’s physically delivered to the Venezuelan central bank in Caracas. It would then be up to the counterparty to work out how to get 211 tons of gold to Caracas by a certain date. That gold could be sourced anywhere in the world, and transported in any conceivable manner — being much less predictable and transparent, those shipments would also be much harder to hijack. How much of a discount would a counterparty require to enter into this kind of transaction? Much more than 3.3%, is my guess. And again, it’s not entirely clear who would even be willing to entertain the idea. Glencore, perhaps?” “But here’s one last idea: why doesn’t Chávez crowdsource the problem? He could simply open a gold window at the Banco Central de Venezuela, where anybody at all could deliver standard gold bars. In return, the central bank would transfer to that person an equal number of gold bars in the custody of the Bank of England, plus a modest bounty of say 2% — that’s over $15,000 per 400-ounce bar, at current rates. It would take a little while, but eventually the gold would start trickling in: if you’re willing to pay a constant premium of 2% over the market price for a good, you can be sure that the good in question will ultimately find its way to your door. And the 2% cost of acquiring all that gold would surely be much lower than the cost of insuring and shipping it from England. It would be an elegant market-based solution to an artificial and ideologically-driven problem; I daresay Chávez might even chuckle at the irony of it. He’d just need to watch out for a rise in Andean banditry, as thieves tried to steal the bars on their disparate journeys into Venezuela.”
Help me cross-check my hypothesis: a U.S. dollar collapse would cause Bitcoin prices to go up in every other currency as well.
OK, we assume the fundamental premise of this thought experiment: the purchasing power of the dollar goes down 10X to 100X. That is to say, a soda today costs you $2, the same soda next week costs you $20 or $200. Then we gloss over the obvious: dollar-denominated prices of Bitcoin will experience a similar increase of 10 to 100 times in nominal figures. A bitcoin today is $450, the same bitcoin next week costs you $4.500 to $45.000. Now here is the hypothesis: the price of Bitcoin will go up in every other currency as well, likely not at the same rate (10 to 100X) as the price of Bitcoin in dollars, but at least somewhat. Here is what I think will happen -- the sequence of steps:
Say the dollar's value plummets like we established in our thought experiment.
This has wide-ranging first, second and third order consequences for the economies of every country, most of which have U.S. dollar reserves.
This affects the perceived safety of those currencies as well, since (a) their debts are denominated in their currencies, but (b) their ability to repay the debts is backed by U.S. dollar reserves that (c) suddenly became near-worthless.
So what do people flee to? People holding dollars ditch the dollar, of course...
...but people holding other currencies also ditch them (albeit at a much slower rate, since their currencies are only affected as a second or third order effect).
They flee and buy assets -- precious metals, real estate, and (those who can) they also buy Bitcoin of course.
Intermediate result: significantly higher demand of Bitcoin, not just in exchange for a certain currency like the dollar, but in exchange for all currencies. End result: higher Bitcoin prices across the board. That doesn't mean our Bitcoin holdings will necessarily buy more stuff next week than the stuff it bought this week, but it does mean that every fiat currency holder will be able to buy less Bitcoin next week than the Bitcoin their money bought this week. Please point out if I have made any mistakes in this thought experiment. Thank you.
A quick note on why Bitcoin can increase in value even if its price in dollars decreases
A dollar is only worth what you can buy with it. We like to measure the value of a Bitcoin in dollars for some reason, I guess because a lot of us are still chasing that dream of becoming a "millionaire" in USD. Or maybe some of us just have loans and credit cards denominated in dollars that we need to pay off at some point. The strength of the dollar can go up or down, depending on how much you can buy with it. If the dollar gets stronger relative to other currencies, then that means that if you sell your Bitcoin for dollars you will have to accept fewer dollars. But at the same time you might be able to buy just as much stuff or more with your dollars than you could have before, when the dollar was weaker and you could trade your bitcoin for more dollars. For example, if a lot of businesses around the world have excess inventory and put items on clearance sales to make payroll, if home prices go down, etc. then the dollar gets stronger, it can buy more stuff. Same thing with foreign currency trade: If China and Europe have financial problems and are willing to spend more Yuan, Yen, Euros, whatever to buy fewer dollars, the dollar is stronger. You might have to sell your Bitcoin for fewer dollars, but you might be able to trade those dollars for more Euros. It just depends on the current state of the global economy and how many trades you are willing to make and where you care to buy your stuff. But then again, if you have loans to pay off, then you really just want your Bitcoin to sell for more dollars. And it the price of Bitcoin in dollars goes up, that might not mean your Bitcoin is really any more valuable, only that dollars are weaker and inflated. Always remember that price and value are two different concepts. Price is the quantity of one commodity you have to trade to acquire another. Value is how much benefit you can ultimately gain from the exchange.
Leaked FinCEN documents reveal that massive banks have transmitted trillions of dollars related to suspicious individuals and known criminals. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to receive the blame for its alleged involvement in criminal activities
Billionaire 'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach says stocks will crash, predicts a weaker dollar, and questions bitcoin in a new interview. Here are the 10 best quotes. | Currency News | Financial and Business News | Markets Insider
Billionaire Jeff Gundlach says stocks will crash, predicts a weaker dollar, and questions Bitcoin. Quote: "I don't believe in Bitcoin. I think that it's a lie. I think that it's very tracked, traceable. I don't think it's anonymous"
Why do so many people think Bitcoin will hit a million anytime soon? It would have to go up a whopping 1000 dollars a day to do it in 3 years at the earliest right?
Why do so many people think Bitcoin will hit a million anytime soon? It would have to go up a whopping 1000 dollars a day to do it in 3 years at the earliest right? or a 1000 a week would be 7 times that long or a thousand a month would be 30 times that long is this math right?
In Alien, the starship that Ripley blew up cost only $42million. Today, SpaceX Starship will cost at least $2billion to develop. This gives us a sense of how inflation has changed the perception of dollar value since 1979, and why the crypto movement began in Bitcoin.
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